Gas and electricity prices during the ‘energy crisis’ and beyond

Below is a refreshed global market analysis and forecast for energy price trends in Ireland over the next 12 months (July 2025–July 2026), focusing on electricity, gas, and fuel prices. The analysis incorporates the latest available data, including recent Ireland gas pricing and wholesale energy charts from provided sources, and closely adapts the impact of ongoing international wars (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Iran conflicts) and trade tensions. I’ve integrated relevant data from the search results to enhance the breakdown, ensuring a concise yet comprehensive response with updated charts and scenarios.

Global Market Analysis: Key Drivers of Energy Prices

1. Global Energy Supply and Demand:

• Oil and Gas Markets: The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil demand growth of 720 kb/d in 2025, slowing to 690 kb/d in 2026, constrained by economic uncertainty and EV adoption. Oil supply is expected to rise by 1.8 mb/d to 104.9 mb/d in 2025, with non-OPEC+ leading growth. Natural gas markets remain tight, with EU LNG imports at 38% of total gas in Q4 2024. Wholesale gas prices rose 21% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2024, though retail prices fell 3% year-on-year. View Report
• Renewables Expansion: Solar and wind capacity growth continues, with EU solar generation up 19% in 2024. Renewables met nearly all new electricity demand globally, reducing fossil fuel reliance. In Ireland, wind contributed 43% of electricity on June 22, 2025, lowering wholesale prices to €18/MWh on high-output days. View Report
• Price Trends: Brent crude oil prices hit $74/b in June 2025 after Israel-Iran escalations but are forecast to average $74/b in 2025 and $66/b in 2026 (EIA). EU wholesale electricity prices fell 20% in 2024 but remain above pre-COVID levels. UK gas prices rose to 80.71 GBp/thm on July 2, 2025, up 5.83% year-on-year. [View Report 1] [View Report 2]

2. Impact of International Wars:

• Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Europe’s shift from Russian pipeline gas to LNG has stabilized supply, but Ireland’s 70% reliance on UK gas imports exposes it to LNG price volatility. New U.S. sanctions on Russian oil (January 2025) could reduce exports by 0.5 mb/d, tightening global markets. X posts indicate stable but high LNG prices due to ongoing tensions.
• Middle East Tensions (Israel-Iran): Israel’s strikes on Iran (June 13, 2025) pushed Brent to $74/b, with risks of Strait of Hormuz disruptions (20% of global oil). A prolonged conflict could raise oil prices by 10–20% and LNG by 5–10%, impacting Ireland’s import costs. View Report
• Trade Wars and Tariffs: U.S. tariffs (25% on Canada/Mexico, 104% on China) and China’s retaliation on U.S. LNG could raise global oil prices by 5–10% and disrupt LNG supply chains. Ireland, via UK imports, faces indirect cost increases. View Report

3. Geopolitical and Economic Context:

• Tariff Impacts: U.S. tariffs could reduce global GDP by 1%, lowering energy demand but raising costs for energy-intensive goods. Ireland’s trade ties with the U.S. mitigate some impacts, but global price pressures persist. View Report
• Inflation and Policy: Ireland’s HICP inflation is projected at 1.6% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026, with energy price declines supporting disinflation. War-driven spikes could push inflation to 2–3%. View Report
• Recession Risks: Global growth is forecast at 3.2% in 2025–2026, down from 3.6% in 2024, with a 40% recession risk due to trade wars and conflicts. A recession could cap energy price rises. View Report

Ireland-Specific Energy Market Factors with Chart Data

1. Energy Mix and Import Dependency:

• Gas: Supplies 50% of Ireland’s electricity, with 70% imported via the UK. Ireland’s gas prices are the 5th highest in Europe, driven by global LNG reliance. View Report
• Renewables: Wind and solar account for 40% of electricity, with wind reducing wholesale prices significantly on windy days (e.g., €18/MWh on June 22, 2025). View Report
• Oil: Dominates transport, with gasoline prices at $2.04/liter in May 2025, down slightly from $2.05/liter in April. View Report

2. Price Trends with Chart Data:

• Household Gas Prices (View SEAI Data):
  • 2023S2: €16.5c/kWh
  • 2024S1: €12.81c/kWh
  • 2024S2: €13.68c/kWh
  • Trend: Prices fell 17% from 2023S2 to 2024S1 due to lower wholesale costs but rose 6.8% in 2024S2, reflecting carbon tax increases (€17/year added to household bills from May 2025). View Report
• Business Gas Prices (View SEAI Data):
  • 2023S2: €7.21c/kWh
  • 2024S1: €6.61c/kWh
  • 2024S2: €6.53c/kWh
  • Trend: Business prices dropped 9.3% from 2023S2 to 2024S2, but remain elevated due to global LNG costs.
• Household Electricity Prices (View SEAI Data):
  • 2023S2: €37.48c/kWh
  • 2024S1: €33.27c/kWh
  • 2024S2: €36.34c/kWh
  • Trend: Prices fell 11.2% from 2023S2 to 2024S1 but rose 9.2% in 2024S2 due to network charges and wholesale gas price increases. Bills are 42% higher than pre-crisis (2021–2022). View Report
• Wholesale Electricity Prices (View Kilowatt.ie Data):
  • 2024 Average: €91–€106/MWh (Cornwall Insight)
  • March 2024: 40% year-on-year drop in wholesale prices
  • June 22, 2025: €18/MWh on high wind days
  • Trend: Prices are down over 50% from August 2022 peaks (€200+/MWh), but remain above 2021 levels (€70–€80/MWh). View Report
• Wholesale Gas Prices (View Utilityfair Data):
  • 2025 Q1: Over 50% lower than August 2022 peaks, but volatile due to UK import reliance (80.71 GBp/thm on July 2, 2025). View Report
• Drivers: Global supply/demand, geopolitical events, and Euro-Sterling exchange rates.

3. Policy and Infrastructure:

• Carbon Tax: Increased in May 2025, adding €17/year to household gas bills and €19/900-liter tank for home-heating oil. Set to rise to €100/tonne by 2030. View Report
• VAT: 9% rate on gas/electricity extended to October 31, 2025, reducing bill increases. View Report
• Renewables: Celtic Interconnector (700 MW) and wind projects (e.g., SSE’s 800MW) face delays, limiting price relief. Gas demand is projected to fall 21% by 2031. View Report

Impact of International Wars on Ireland’s Energy Prices

• Short-Term Risks (0–6 Months):
• Middle East Escalation: A Strait of Hormuz disruption could raise Brent by 10–20% ($80–$88/b), increasing fuel prices by 7–10% (€2.18–€2.24/liter) and electricity/gas by 5–10% due to LNG costs. View Report
• Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Russian oil export cuts could tighten LNG markets, raising household gas prices by 10–15% (€15–€16c/kWh). View Report
• Trade War Effects: U.S. tariffs on Canada could add €0.05–€0.10/liter to fuel (3–5%) and 3–5% to gas/electricity via UK import costs. View Report

• Medium-Term Risks (6–12 Months):
• Recessionary Pressure: A trade war-induced recession could lower demand, reducing electricity prices by 5–10% (€85–€90/MWh) and gas by 10% (€12–€13c/kWh) by mid-2026. View Report
• Geopolitical Stabilization: If conflicts ease, Brent could fall to $66/b, stabilizing electricity at €90/MWh and fuel at €1.95/liter. View Report
• Renewables: Wind capacity growth could cut electricity price volatility by 2–3%, but grid constraints limit impact. View Report

Expected Energy Price Trends in Ireland (July 2025–July 2026)

1. Base Case (60% Probability):

• Electricity: €90–€95/MWh, down 5–10% from 2024–2025 (€106/MWh), driven by renewables and stable LNG. Household bills (€36–€37c/kWh) drop 3–5% but remain 35–40% above pre-crisis levels. View Report
• Gas: Household prices at €13–€14c/kWh, down 0–5% from 2024S2 (€13.68c/kWh), supported by European gas stocks. Business prices at €6.5–€6.7c/kWh. View Report
• Oil/Fuel: Petrol/diesel at €2–€2.05/liter, up 2–4% from $2.04/liter, due to tariffs and Middle East risks. View Report
• War Impact: Limited conflict escalation, with tariffs adding moderate pressure.

2. High-Conflict Scenario (30% Probability):

• Electricity: €100–€110/MWh, up 10–20%, as LNG/oil prices rise 15–20%. Household bills hit €40–€42c/kWh. View Report
• Gas: Household prices at €15–€17c/kWh, up 10–25%. Business prices at €7.5–€8c/kWh. View Report
• Oil/Fuel: Fuel at €2.25–€2.35/liter, up 10–15%, if Middle East supply is disrupted. View Report
• War Impact: Major escalation (e.g., Strait of Hormuz closure, Russian oil cuts).

3. Low-Conflict/Recession Scenario (10% Probability):

• Electricity: €85–€90/MWh, down 10–15%. Household bills at €34–€35c/kWh. View Report
• Gas: Household prices at €12–€13c/kWh, down 5–10%. Business prices at €6–€6.3c/kWh. View Report
• Oil/Fuel: Fuel at €1.90–€1.95/liter, down 0–5%. View Report
• War Impact: Conflict de-escalation and recession lower demand.

Recommendations for Navigating Price Trends

1. Consumers:

• Efficiency: Use smart meters and insulation to cut usage, especially if prices spike.
• Switching: Compare tariffs via Save N Go to save up €776.
• Fuel: Carpool or use public transport to offset fuel cost rises. View Report

2. Businesses:

• Hedging: Secure fixed-rate contracts now to avoid war-driven spikes. Utilityfair can help break expensive 2022–2023 contracts. View Report
• Renewables: Invest in solar or wind power purchase agreements
• Monitoring: Track wholesale prices via Kilowatt.ie or Utilityfair to time contract renewals. View Report 1 View Report 2

3. Policymakers:

• Grid Upgrades: Accelerate renewable integration to reduce price volatility. View Report
• Security: Diversify LNG sources to buffer war disruptions. View Report
• Relief: Extend electricity credits (€125 in November 2024/January 2025) if prices surge. View Report

Conclusion

Ireland’s energy prices are expected to stabilize in the base case, with electricity at €90–€95/MWh (down 5–10%), gas at 13c–14c/kWh (down 0–5%), and fuel at €2–€2.05/liter (up 2–4%) through July 2026. Middle East or Russia-Ukraine escalations could drive prices up 10–25%, while a trade war-induced recession could lower them by 5–10%. Chart data shows household gas prices at 13.68c/kWh and electricity at 36.34c/kWh in 2024S2, with wholesale prices down 50% from 2022 peaks but still elevated. Renewables and hedging mitigate volatility, but import dependency sustains risks. Monitor conflicts and tariffs closely. [View Report 1] [View Report 2]